Random thoughts…

So yesterday was a ‘day’ of travel, mostly due to my own stupidity…

BUT, I’m truly pissed at AA CSR who refused to inter-line transfer my bag. I ended up having to pick up the bag, then recheck with United, which meant I missed my connection. United got me on a later flight for free, and were very understanding, all things considered.

After sitting in DFW for 5 hours, I got an interesting seatmate going back to DC, he’s ex-Navy, now a commodities trader from Houston. He was on his way to London, to meet with some ‘houses’ over there as he called them.

His take, along with others he is meeting with are that the next 6-18 months are going to be VERY interesting in the global markets, and downstream, e.g. the US markets. He said every indicator they are seeing is that global markets are ‘teetering’ (his words), due to the attacks in Paris and the expected follow-ups.  His belief, and apparently a number of others is that the entire ‘system’ is fragile, and one more attack is possibly enough to send the market into freefall, when you consider the currency fluctuations, Greek bailout, Chinese Yuan devaluation and “climate change” proponents.

On the US front, they are concerned about the new EPA regulations, like 15% Ethanol, and global trade in wheat, corn, soybeans and rice. These, accompanied by the ‘low’ oil prices and the administration turning down the Keystone pipeline, will put the US at the mercy of, among others, China and Russia.

China is a huge producer of steel (marginal quality), but if they throw enough money at Canada, Canada will build a pipeline to Vancouver and we’ll never see any of the oil. Russia has oil in Siberia, and little known (or not known by me) is that they also have extensive diamond mines. De Beers is apparently keeping the diamond market artificially high by buying and storing ‘excess’ diamond production in London.

A tertiary concern is the cascading failures of the ACA, and the impact this will have on medical care, devices and hospitals. He thinks there are two possible outcomes, either single payer (a mistake he believes), or a ‘fall back’ to the previous way of insuring people. Apparently there are some ‘fact sheets’ floating around that say the current situation is untenable due to the lack of ‘healthy’ people buying into the system, along with the increasing rates, and companies like United Health Care leaving markets.

It was an educational three hours, to put it mildly. His takeaway was that if they Dems get in, we’re done for, and he’ll emigrate to either Australia or Belize.

Comments

Random thoughts… — 18 Comments

  1. So I think to myself, a trader (highly dependent upon markets) paints doom yet aside from naming Campsite A or B, sez nothing of response to said gloomy forecast. You know, something long the lines of ‘bury yer money in coffee cans’ or something. Something seems amiss.

    BTW: I do not disagree with his prognosis. However, the two named countries are no picnic anymore. In fact, such to the point that it is akin to rearranging the deckchairs. Me, I’m hunkering. (Plan A) Or putting out to sea again. (Plan B) What happens in the transition is only a guess.

  2. r- This is my poor attempt to condense 3 hours into a short post. Actually, I don’t think he ‘knows’ what the response, or his response is going to be. He’d been to Australia on Tico’s world cruise, and he is fluent in Spanish, so I those ‘colored’ his choices. I’m with you, hunkering down IS my option of choice. One of my reasons for the upcoming relocation in the next month.

  3. re: Excess diamond production. It’s worth it to deBeers to buy up the diamonds coming out of Russia, to maintain some control over worldwide supply. Like your friend, I’ve heard for years that they have quite a supply and trickle them out to the world market so that prices will remain stable. They don’t quite have enough to start graveling parking lots with surplus diamonds, but the hyperbole isn’t far from the truth.

    And, yeah, Obama shot us in the ass over Keystone XL. Oil doesn’t stand still, it’s going somewhere. Where that might be depends on number of factors. One day, I suspect, we’ll look on his denial of Keystone as simply another specification in his treason indictment.

  4. Small quibble. Makes more sense for the Canadians to build a pipeline to Hudson Bay. Shorter and easier terrain. Another option is Prince Rupert.

    • Hudson’s Bay? Prince Rupert??
      Oh ya, Global Warming will make them year round ports. 😉

  5. I got no choice but to hunker.
    Fortunately, I live near a good source of water and a couple of large food supplies (Kroger’s and WalMart).

    Funny how I thought his opinion would hold more value if you guys were not in coach.

  6. “De Beers is apparently keeping the diamond market artificially high by buying and storing ‘excess’ diamond production in London.”

    Indeed. Nothing new under the sun. Flip through any biography of John Browning and look at the photos of the lever action rifles that never saw the light of day, because Winchester bought the designs to keep them off the market.

  7. Well, not disagreeing with his “Big Picture”, I’d just want add that I think whoever the Republitards nominate, they better be able to beat Hillary.

    I have to Hunker down, but since 8 months out of the year I can cross Lake Erie by Boat, if push comes to shove I’m Swimming like it’s the Rio Grande and asking for Asylum in Canada!

    Due to my Syrian Ancestors, of course. ; )

  8. Paw/WSF- Good points!

    Ed- Actually we were in first. He paid, I got a free upgrade… 🙂

    RHT- Another great point!

    Les- True… 🙂 And the other four months you can walk across it… 😀

  9. I’m not convinced that electing Team Heffalump will result in any noticeable vector change. You could hand them super-majorities in both houses, the Presidency, and a right-leaning Supreme Court, and they’d still claim they couldn’t muster the votes for a bathroom break unless Team Donkey says it’s OK.

  10. Yes, this is but a seconds long summary of an hours long flight. I’m sorry for seeming an ass. My intent was to coax further detail of what was most likely an interesting conversation. I shouldn’t be let out of the cage half the time.

    DeBeers has been doing that for like forever. Pretty good of UA to work you in. The highly illegal, unconstitutional ACA was never about healthcare. Instead, healthcare is a commodity to be traded and taxed and a means to ever increasing control. John Roberts should be tried for crimes

  11. I agree with Drifter some what the RINO’S needs to be made extinct and the Conservatives will get things done.

  12. Drifter/Rick- Sadly you could be right… sigh

    R- No biggie, it IS a lousy write up 🙁 I wish I had thought to take notes. 🙂

  13. I just keep hoping that the meteors will come and then let GOD sort it out.

  14. Well, I got lucky. I retired in small town Texas this year and make as much money as I did in the govt. job with good healthcare. All my debts are covered and I’ll pay off debts in a few years. I’ve already hunkered down and am ready for whatever comes next. Worst case: Obama thinks he can declare himself “prezzie for life” and get away with it. Hoped for: President Trump OR Cruz appoints 4 new SCOTUS justices that are REALLY conservative and we save our country. Outlook: We’ll find out in about a year.

  15. Heltau- That would work too!

    Fiftycal- I’m right behind you… Two more weeks and I’m heading to Texas!