Update on .22 ammo…

From Brownell’s newsletter.

The .22 Ammo Situation – We’ve received questions lately on something we’ve all been wondering about: Why is .22 rimfire ammo still “scarcer’n hen’s teeth”? The shortage of centerfire stuff ended a while ago, so what’s up?

Here’s the scoop from some of our industry friends who are really plugged into the ammunition business. It’s not as bad as it was. Rimfire ammo IS making its way onto store shelves, but demand is still sky high, so it zooms off those shelves almost instantly, usually with a limit on the number of boxes you can have.

Premium brands of .22 LR are sticking around longer in stores because customers who were willing to pay high prices just to get any .22 ammo have slowed down their buying. But the less-expensive ammo – the “buy a brick and plink all Saturday afternoon” stuff – still gets gobbled up as soon as it hits a shelf.

The biggest issue is, unlike centerfire ammo, rimfire is produced on dedicated machinery that can only load rimfire. Centerfire machines can load many different cartridges, so if there’s a big shortage of .308 Winchester, the ammo factory can switch a bunch of machines over to it and ramp up supply much faster. That’s why calibers that were in short supply in 2013 and 2014, like 9mm or .223 or .45 ACP, came back a lot faster.

Rimfire is a whole other ball of wax because of the way the cases are primed. It’s really, really expensive and takes a long time to set up new rimfire production machinery – so costly that manufacturers can’t spend the time and money to do it unless they’re absolutely sure higher demand is here to stay, so the .22 LR production capacity in the U.S. isn’t going to expand much any time soon. As long as demand for less-expensive rimfire ammo remains so strong, it will continue to be hard to get. Our guys tell me supply will probably stay very tight right through 2016. Wish I had better news – as soon as I do, you’ll be the first to know!

At least there IS some good news… sigh…

Comments

Update on .22 ammo… — 17 Comments

  1. Rimfire ammo is becoming more available. However, the prices are MUCH higher. The top end stuff, Eley red & black, RWS, Lapua Midas + & Center X are just a little higher, about 10 ~ 20% & is readily available. The practice stuff has gone up about 50% and has spotty availability. The plinker stuff has almost doubled in price and as noted disappears almost instantly from the dealers.
    Primers are another story with local large retailers offering them priced like they were solid gold.

  2. Does the plinking ammo equate to the ‘less expensive’ ammo? It seems to me that it does. Yet the demand for the plinking ammo remains high and is most likely to remain high. (I would go so as to bet on it.)

    So, in that mfgs want to be absolutely assured of continued high demand, and plinking ammo has been and is still, and very likely to remain in high demand, the lingering question is why not concentrate on producing plinking ammo?

    Consider: CMP has a standing order so far backordered that they’ve given up on the stuff. Appleseed and other programs are in the same boat. All told, these groups represent a need for large volume of rounds. Those groups aren’t going away. Plus there is the increasing number of shooters.

    Hence, a follow up question; what number of rounds would the mfgs like to see? As it is only ‘expensive’ when ROI fails to meet the goal, and demand continues to remain high, what is prohibiting mfgs from producing plinking ammo? I am yet unconvinced it is solely the expense to set up a dedicated production line.

    I mean, it seems the mfgs want a forecast more reliable than what is possible. Let’s put aside thin margins for a minute. Could it be instead that senior mgmt. is risk adverse? However, that may account for one or two mfgs but not an entire industry. Or does it? What of the industry? Here I get into the realm of something within the industry which has acted to prohibit mfgs from stepping up rimfire production. (I’m not talking of collusion or price fixing.) Govt regulation comes to mind.

    Again, I am simply not sold on cost of set up as being the reason to not set up. Consumer demand has been very high for several years and shows no sign of slowing.

  3. As it is now, you need to “know somebody” to buy .22 LR. Fortunately I do, but it feels like buying illegal narcotics.

  4. FWIW, I’m now seeing some of the Winchester and Remington bulk packs in the local gun shops. The pricing isn’t hateful (6-7 cents/round) and they’re not immediately selling out.

    • My 10/22 eats just about anything (everything except Win) but my goodness does the Rem GB make a mess after even <500 rounds. Nonetheless I'll pop of a thousand on any given day. I know many other shooters who have even more of a problem with the Rem bulk packs. So, those bulk packs are more of a 'last resort', that is, they aren't selling as fast as other plink grade.

      If, say CCI got on it to produce plinking ammo which is not match but a step up from Rem bulk, that stuff would just fly off the shelf.

      BTW: where are you seeing 6-7 cents/round? The best I've found in CA and 3 other western states is 7.99 cents. Online retailers make a killing on shipping (typically 3 cents/round or more).

  5. BTW, a friend of mine can no longer shoot and his wife is selling me his ammo with a lot of .22 included.
    A lot.
    Finally I can justify buying a .22 pistol.

  6. Surely it has nothing to do with the massive groups of online re-sellers that have nothing better to do but stand in line for a store to open up while you are work, so they can buy it all up and then immediately go online to sell it at a ridiculous markup right? I live in SE Texas close to Beaumont. There is a serious gouging racket here and we have been lucky to see Remi, AE, and Winchester bulk packs on the shelves from time to time. That’s only if the gougers haven’t put out the word to their other gouging butt buddies to go buy it all up before someone who actually needs the shit for shooting does. I can understand a 15%-25% markup for reselling it, but for a man to ask $150 for a $70 bucket of bullets gets under my skin just a bit. I will never buy it from the re-sellers. I hope they choke on it. 22lr can be found out there in the wild lands of retail stores if you know where and when to look. It also helps if you want to slip a twenty to a kid who hates his job for a bit of information on when shipments come in, just sayin’…

  7. Roger- ALL ammo is up, and the cost is attributable to increases in brass and lead costs. But at least it IS getting back out there.

    r- It’s basically cost prohibitive to spend $4M to put a new line in, considering the return is supposedly less than a penny a round. Re your second post, CCI has their niche and they like it.

    LL- Heard that, sigh…

    CM- That’s good news!

    Ed- LOL, go look at the Ruger MKIII in 22/45

  8. Boy, did I ever get an early Christmas present.

    I was cleaning up one of my “work areas” and found TEN 525-round boxes of Federal 22LR ammo, still in the cardboard box it was shipped to me in!

    And it was bought quite some time ago, when you couls still get it at the “regular” price.

  9. I won 1,500 rounds during “Kilted for Cancer” raffle a few years back. A non-gunnie friend said “Man! That’ll last you a lifetime!”
    Once I stopped laughing I did some math.
    Those 1,500 rounds would allow me to reload all my .22 mags/cylinders not quite 5 times.

    Ed, second recommendation for Ruger 22/45. Just added one to my collection. Love it.

  10. My guitar-practice buddy has a son who works at the gun counter in a local sporting goods store. When we need .22, I just tell him.

    I pay for the ammo, and he gets free guitar lessons. Works out well for both of us. But my daughter-the-Appleseed-instructor says there’s still not enough to go ’round.

  11. The demand for .22 is not going to decrease. For one thing, there are too many .22 pistols and rifles out there that are fun to shoot.

    Having jacked the price of ammo through the roof, manufacturers are not going to drop the price to previous levels just because their cost drops. They’ll keep the cost high because that means higher profit, which makes them happy.

    I just checked Lucky Gunner, and they are selling .22 at $0.15 per round. I refuse to pay it. As much as I enjoy shooting my Ruger 10/22, I’m not going to allow myself to get gouged on ammo prices.

  12. drjim- Ah shaddap… LOL

    Stretch- Yep, heard that! Last class I taught shot 1000 rounds of .22

    Rev- NICE!!!

    MJ- Agree, I’ll buy when it’s reasonable.

  13. I agree. The ROI is just too small, even at higher prices. Also, the manufacturers are not getting the higher prices, the retailers are. The manufacturers are getting a higher price, but not full market price. The profit margins are just too small to capitalize a new line, even if they had assured demand going out into the future.