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Any of these lead to “martial law” and suspension of elections. We become a dictatorship.

Interesting intellectual exercise.

I’m going to go out on a limb and argue against number one. While I will concede that it’s not impossible that it would happen given the fact that the Israelis have proven their willingness to execute preemptive strikes before (1981 bombing of Iraqi reactor), they have shown extreme restraint in limiting themselves to conventional arms. The Israelis can’t afford to lose their holocaust trump card. If they nuke Iran causing 10s or 100s of thousands of deaths, the west will be handed a get out of jail free card for ending support of Israel.

2. Seems equally improbable but not impossible as 1. I don’t know enough about the internal politics of all three to give an intelligent counter argument though.

3. This seems to be the most likely possibility of the bunch. I’m not entirely sure that a Greek collapse would domino the entire EU; however, I don’t think the end result will be any less unpleasant or far reaching. I don’t think there is any question that the world economy is boned unless drastic measures are taken and there seems to be a distinct lack of political will power to make the necessary changes. Sad to say, but I expect to see Nero fiddling while Rome burns in my lifetime. Hopefully, I am proven wrong.

I think it’s a certainty that the UN has outlasted its usefulness and will go the way of the League of Nations before too much longer.

The other alternative that I see as a possibility is China taking a more aggressive role in military power projection. They were in the process of finishing out a Russian aircraft carrier a while back which could extend their reach.

Well, they are all possible. But which one is the most probably. Given what we know, I’d say that #3 is the most probable. That being said, I don’t think it will happen. But if it does, I do think the UN is toast.

I don’t see Russia or Mexico collapsing. The cartels/Russian mob will see that as bad for business, and will step in as shadow governments to maintain order, albeit corrupt and ruthless (not that much different from today).

I don’t see the Israelis using nukes, but I do think they’ll take some action. They can’t afford to let Iran develop nuclear weapons. Israel has already launched covert attacks, including cyberwar (the Stuxnet worm) and assassinations (sounds like a James Bond film). The next step could very will be direct military intervention

If I had to add one scenario it would be the likelihood that the Germans get fed up with all the ongoing Euro nonsense, get tired of propping up failed socialist governments, and start building up their military. They can’t help it – it’s in their DNA… 🙂

Oh, that had to be one interesting conversation!

I really don’t know enough in the Middle East to predict what’s going to happen next – other than things will change, and probably for the worse.

Number 2 I see as inevitable, if not immediately impending – the only thing worse than an insane dictator is the scramble in the vacuum of power the leave. Even if Cuba or Venezuela’s power struggles don’t directly affect us (and from shipping lanes and oil production, they really do), the failure of socialism / communism is a failure of Obama’s ideology, and he’ll not react well to that.

For an alternate to three – Germany has made noises about taking fiscal ownership of other member states if they should bail them out again. In which case they conquer by the ledger instead of the gun – whether they want that territory or not. And just as sure as feudal lords avoided repaying loans by declaring pogroms, someone’s going to turn it into a shooting match against Germany. Their militaries may be near-vestigial, if they’re all drawn down, it may look like a good enough shot to try.

What are the odds that if shooting starts, Putin will join in to sweep up former parts of the USSR under “stabilizing the borders”?

The other worry I have is China – when their bubble bursts, they have so very far to fall. Many a government has distracted its citizens from domestic problems by a “neat little war” – and they have always considered the ROC a rogue province, and have plenty of old grudges against Japan and the West.. as well as an eye to Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, where there’s plenty of oil waiting to be tapped. If Obama bows out after the first strike, what’s to stop them from “securing their borders” and their neighbor’s resources?

If you’d tell me I’m worrying over nothing and mean it, I’d be grateful if you’d show me why.

Beyond Greece in scenario #3, you have Germany pulling out of the EU, causing France to follow them and the house of cards to collapse. Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal are all on the ropes but there is a considerable groundswell of public opinion inside Germany to go it alone.

If I was a German, I’d side with that sentiment. Return to the Mark (the way that the UK kept the Pound and Switzerland kept the Swiss Franc).

***
Everyone knows when the revolution will come in Mexico (mañana). They can’t make a decision to save themselves. So they’ll put it off, drink some tequila and have a siesta.

LL- Good point!

Quiz- We voted that one off too… But it was discussed!

I think #3 is the most immediately likely. I agree with Wing and a Whim that Germany might step in and take the whole European tamale with Russia retaking USSR territory, especially since the present administration punted on the missile defense system for Poland.

All these little details the students of 50-100 years from now will have to memorize…whatever language that may be
Q

Putin never left power just changed tittles. already put up a trial ballon fir an EU style colition of Warsaw Pac countries.

Fidel has the charisma, but Raul is the brains. Raul already loosened a lot of the restrictions and made nice with the populous. He isn’t going any where.

Chavis dies Columbia want let it get to out of hand and might use it as an excuse to step a cross the border and step on FARK that has been hiding just across the border.

From what I know the sites that Israel would wan’t to hit from the air are hardened against that. But makes them perfect targets for ground forces and tactical nukes, as what them hard to hot from the air wil contain the blast and fallout.

There want be a succession war in North Korea as China will suport the designated heir.

Pakistan now there’s a wild card. Pakistan and Afghanistan are looking more and more to China to geel a viod when we leave, or so I’ve heard.

Hmmmm….

Like many others here I agree all scenarios are possible. And I’ll chime in with Wing/Whim about keeping a close eye on China. When the world falls apart and there is no market for all their plastic gee-jaws, the Chinese will be looking for a way to continue the standard of living they’ve become accustomed to. They’re already making inroads into space…
And that means they have the ability to smite us without difficulty.

History is a bitch. And anytime things get this unsettled, history shows it can get much, much more unsettled before it gets better. The major difference between now, and the recent past? Britain no longer could mount the sort of offensive they built in order to retake the Falklands, so they won’t be much help when the fur starts flying. We’re cutting back on budgets for the very weapons systems we’ll need to punish our enemies.

I hope my crystal ball is wrong.