Where does it end???


Tunisia toppled Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali; now Egypt. It was interesting to watch the ‘variety’ of coverage between the BBC, CNN, and EuroTV on what was happening…


Egypt has suspended the constitution, dissolved parliament and promised fresh elections now that the military has taken control, and ‘rumors’ abound that Mubarak is in a coma in Sharem El Sheik…

I had a moment to chat with an Egyptian this morning at the airport and I asked him what he thought. He said, “I’m not sure we will be any better off, and I truly hope the MB does not take over, because they will kill us.” When I asked what he meant, he said he was Coptic not Muslim, and there had been attacks where Muslims had killed 11 Copts in Southern Egypt the end of Jan. He also said this is not the first time Mubarak has had ‘medical’ problems when things didn’t go his way.

HERE is a link to the Coptic Christian movement.

And the military HAVE NOT met with any of the opposition groups, nor have they indicated what, if any changes, they will allow or make to the Egyptian Constitution. But the military ruling council indicates that Cairo remains committed to all its treaties, including its landmark 1979 peace deal with Israel.

But effectively the Suez Canal is limited for our military use due to the unrest. What does that mean? Well, add 9-10 days to a transit from the US to the Persian Gulf, adding fuel costs, wear/tear and other expensive issues to the Navy’s already tight budget.

On the other hand, the Israelis are NOT taking anything for granted and have been moving assets around in the Negev, Goliad and other locations “just in case”…

As LawDog indicated HERE, he thinks five years and Egypt will be wishing they were back under Mubarak; I don’t think it’s going to take that long…

Algeria is up in arms, Jordan is having “issues” with the ‘Political Action Front’ of the Muslim Brotherhood, but Jordan has a benevolent dictatorship, and the King has already acted to counter the MB there.

There were riots in Tehran today (put down quickly by Iranian Security), Azerbaijan (primarily run by Armenians) has had riots (which seem to have dropped off the news completely)…

Bahrain is having ‘clashes’ between protesters (supposedly a ‘radical’ muslim element) and security forces, and so is Yemen…

Bahrain is where our Fifth Fleet HQ is located, which is the primary HQ for our assets working in the Persian Gulf and supporting OEF, OIF and Afghanistan ops, and Yemen controls access to the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea; the Southern access to the Suez Canal.

Libya is potentially going up in flames too…

Who is the puppet master??? This is almost an unheard of amount of coordination between diverse peoples in all these countries…

And I overheard a lawyer today on the airplane say the administration is going to try to seize Mubarak’s money as ill-gotten gains, and ‘return’ it to the Egyptian people.

I just wonder what they are thinking in DC… First they blow the whole thing from the intel, common message, support the incumbent (or at least don’t throw him under… never mind); it almost makes me wonder which side they are on…

I expect we will see gas prices over $4/gal by summer, and possibly as high as $5/gal by next winter. Also, with the rise is gas prices, prices for everything else will go up too. And I don’t see anybody in the administration really responding to that.

Comments

Where does it end??? — 13 Comments

  1. Another view.

    http://www.stratfor.com/

    Their take is there has been no regime change; just the top dog. He was replaced because he tried to promote his son as successor.

    One can be sure the Iranians are funneling in money and tring to influence events.

    Not sure Arabs in general much like Persians.

  2. ….And the Persians HATE the Arabs.
    I lived in Iran for about 6 months back in the late 70’s, and one thing I definitely picked up on, was how the “real” Persians looked down on the Arabs as second-class people.
    I worry that the whole ME will go up in tribal warfare. They’ve been killing each other for 5,000 years, but now they have (or will have soon) nukes.

  3. NFO, on your prognosis…nobody in Washington, the WH or elsewhere in liberal land will give a shit.

  4. Keads- Thanks

    WSF/drjim- yeah, I read it, don’t necessarily agree with ‘all’ of their points, but overall I concur. And no, Persians DON’T like Arabs, they consider them second class citizens… The Pakis already have Nukes, and I’m not sure what ‘else’ is popping out from the former USSR locations.

    Julie- Yep

    CS- Concur, bottom line, people are/will die for basically nothing other than a change at the top…

    Crucis- Probably not, but WE will feel the impact on the military and oil sides of the people that actually DO work…

  5. I worked with three classes or Persians when I was there. The educated businessmen and Engineers, the younger guys, and the almost “untouchable” caste that did the cleaning and general ‘dirty work’ in the factory. The first two groups were very nice, and very pro-American.
    The third group hat this seething hate in their eyes that I never understood until I got much older, and maybe a little wiser.
    They hated ALL things “Western”, and were the only group who got out their little prayer rugs at certain times during the day. I guess the feelings between them and the Persians were mutual.

  6. drjim- Good point, the lower caste hate ANYONE and everyone that deals with their overlords…

  7. Their take is there has been no regime change; just the top dog. He was replaced because he tried to promote his son as successor. 2945abc45 0223