A Prediction…

And I truly hope that I am wrong with this one…

But I ‘think’ that DPRK is going to shoot ‘something’ on the 10th, if it is nuke (and there is activity around the tunnel) there wont be much response possible. Ic it is a missile and depending on the flight path the Navy will be tasked to shoot it down…

Stellar Avenger successful ballistic missile defense intercept.

(USS HOPPER firing an SM3 against a terminal phase missile off PMRF. The Aegis program is 19 of 23 for their test shots…)

And if the Navy DOES shoot the missile down, the DPRK will say the US declared war and retaliate against Japan/ROK with other missiles and possibly attack with non-conventional means across the 38th Parallel.

My thought is that Kim the younger is WAY over his head, and has backed himself into a corner that he cannot get out of… And China is NOT quashing him at all (at least that we know of)…

I truly hope I’m wrong… Or they only pop a nuke underground…


A Prediction… — 23 Comments

  1. An underground test would save face but I think that he has to do two things: Shoot something, even if its artillery at a ROK asset and launch a missile in the form of a missile test at a US asset. Either way there will be a cause and effect, which the DPRK must take (as you point out) as a declaration of war. And the hoards will swarm into the ROK. Maybe there will be a successful nuclear release and maybe there won’t be depending on the ABM assets that are employed.

  2. The DPRK is packing up it’s embassy in England. They also announced a missile “test” launch for tomorrow and advised foreigners to leave South Korea because they will unleash merciless, sacred war on the ROK.

    Their feelings have been hurt because they life in a lice infested dung pit in the north and people in the ROK point that out.

  3. And of course the obama administration is doing everything possible to support and protect our allies in that region…

  4. +1 to Julie, above. And concur with the other comments, too. Young Kim’s only peaceful way out would cost ‘face’, and of course he can’t allow that.

  5. I suspect the “boy” is simply a front for the military. I believe the driving force here is the physical condition of the people and after such a hard winter I wonder if they can physically even conduct their spring planting. This has to put the government on edge – and governments severly stressed do stupid things. Sadily I see no flaws in your thought experiment – tomorrow could well be a very bad day . . . . glad you are back on US soil sir . . .

  6. The USS Hopper… Wasn’t that the one that ran Windows and had to be towed back to base after its computers crashed?

  7. Toddlers with hammers are very dangerous. I’m curious as to what China is up to. I doubt they really want to fulfill their treaty obligations with NK should Kim Il Looney Toon actually do something.

  8. It amazes me how stupid and/or crazy “leaders” like him can be to think they could ever hope to take on the US and our allies. To the point that the thought sometimes floats through my head that maybe he WANTS to provoke us into “liberating” his country. I know that sounds crazy but what else does he honestly think is going to happen?

  9. Not completely convinced the Norks have a working nuke. But even a dirty bomb would be a game changer.

    Wondering how much longer before Øbama sends Jimmy Carter to DPRK to tell Junior “Shut up and take our money! And food. And fuel.”

    Or is Jimmy too busy going to Maggie Thatcher’s funeral? (Yeah, I crack me up sometimes.)

  10. How do you stop an army that’s been told “Victory and Food.”?
    Hell of a motivator.

  11. I’m not sure they’d waste a Nuke on a slim chance of hitting a Ship. I’d think they’d save it for Seoul or Tokyo or Guam.

    But a Conventional High Explosive? Yeah, that could easily happen.

    But it doesn’t matter. We can’t do anything about it except go Total Nuclear with an Ohio Class Boat. Why?

    Because the U.S. Air Force just grounded 1/3 of ALL Combat Aircraft TODAY due to Budget Cuts.

    So the main thing to watch would be to to see if the Tanks start Moving South, and the Ammo Trucks head towards the Arty near the Border.

    Then the South Koreans can ask for Help from the U.S., and we’ll have to tell them “No, because we only have money for the White House Calligraphers. Sorry.”

    Then the South will say “Fuck it, I ain’t doing June 1950, the Sequel” and do what they can.

    Then we can watch an Allie get hosed by Obama.


  12. I recall reading something from the 10th to the invasion(day) date of June 1950 origional invasion of South korea as the time to watch. Communist always do things on calenders..trying to maintain a tradition I guess.

  13. Thanks for the comments, I’m out of pocket until tomorrow, I’ll try to answer individual comments then.

    Posted from my iPhone.

  14. I agree that he’s written way too many big checks with his rhetoric. My gut tells me we’ll see a missile test, possibly a nuke test, and maybe artillery fired at some islands. Then he can go to his domestic audience and spout about how he’s faced down the imperialists running dogs.

    Of course, any one of those could spiral out of control very quickly, especially if the South Koreans decide they’ve had enough of his crap.

  15. DB- Concur and now it looks like the 15th and missles… Apparently they’ve ‘erected’ the two launchers… sigh