MH370…

I don’t know what’s being broadcast up there, but ‘I’ tend to believe the signals heard by MV Ocean Shield are a LOT more believable than what the Chinese Navy is claiming…

Ocean Shield is towing a US Navy system, manned by US sailors that is specifically designed to ‘listen’ at the correct frequency, being towed at depth.  And they’ve held contact for over 2 hours in one pass, and 19 minutes in the crossing pass.

The Chinese have a little Benthos transducer on a stick down about 6-10 feet, over the side of a RHIB, and a guy on a headset sweeping through the frequency band… But they’ve ‘heard’ two clicks…

And they are 500 klicks south of where Ocean Shield is… and between search areas…

One of the ‘big’ questions is why no debris has been seen by either ship.  You have to remember this is now the THIRD week since the crash, and currents down in the Roaring 40’s (40 South Latitude) can run as 2-3kts/hr.  Which would mean the debris field could move 48-72nm per DAY, or 1008-1512nm over the last three weeks…

Oceanographers are working hard at long term current plots and folks are still flying their asses off, and ships are still searching, but honestly it’s first just trying to find the haystack, and THEN find the needle…

My heart goes out to the families of the victims, and it’s really frustrating to see some of the crap that is STILL being spewed by the media…

Kudos to those at sea, and those in the air who continue to do their best.  I hope they are successful sooner rather than later.

Comments

MH370… — 12 Comments

  1. “Tough” doesn’t even begin to describe the size of the search area. My destroyer pulled a pair of helo pilots out of the Mediterranean at night; that was tough enough, and they were alert & broadcasting. Indian Ocean? Just wow.

  2. I think it’s not impossible that the Chinese heard the same signals. Don’t forget, the thermoclines in the Roaring Forties (where the plane came down) are among the most weird (not to mention strongest) in the world. It’s entirely feasible that the signal ‘bounced’ between thermoclines and was propagated over a very long horizontal distance. However, I guess only direct comparison between all the signals picked up will be able to say whether they’re from the same source.

  3. Rev- True!

    WSF- Oh yeah…

    Peter- That would be ‘improbable’ at best, but I’m not going to say impossible… But when you look at spreading losses at 20logR, 5-7nm is about the maximum distance to realistically ‘expect’ to hear anything…

  4. The manufacturer of the modified hydrophone China used said it was “Theoretically possible, but highly unlikely”.

    He said the signals received were right at the threshold of the device’s sensitivity.

  5. drjim- I’ve used those… I actually am wondering if that is some stock footage from something else the Chinese may have done. Just sayin…

  6. Anyone else curious as to why Barry isn’t out in front of this one talking it up and taking credit? Does he know something the rest of us would fear?

    I think a good haystack search would be an ideal diversion from the Ukraine, Ft Hood 2, Obummercare….

  7. The more I think about your comment on the Chinese vessel in question I am puzzled about their claim. Being a naval power wouldn’t they be expected to field better equipment and made the claim to save face?

    Or did y’all miss a Chinese submarine?

  8. Michael- Simple, he can’t take credit… And US presence is very low.

    Jesse- Benthos is top of the line, but that is a ‘basic’ transducer set up normally used in shallower water… Saving face is possible, and no they didn’t slip one out… 🙂

  9. I’m sorry. I just don’t believe that aircraft is in the ocean. It defies what we know about the pilot and his behavior. He had a pretty high end home flight simulator. Why would a man who was already a pilot be practicing runs on a flight sim? If he just wanted to crash a plane into the ocean all he needed was the controls.

    I think, based on what is known, what is more likely is that he took the plane up to 45,000 feet and depressurized the cabin. That took care of everyone who might have objected. Then he flew the plane somewhere. He’d been practicing the flight, had everything set, knew where exactly he was going and what his landing fuel state would be. In that area, with as much of his avionics shut off as possible, it’s clear they could not track him. Otherwise we would know where the plane splashed.

    The question is why. That leads to a couple of possibilities. Here’s one. He landed in Pakistan and rolled off the runway into a waiting hanger. They lie and shrug, sorta like they did over Bin Laden for a decade, “No plane here, boss.” Then they paint it, they set up the transponders and radios to mimic an upcoming flight out of Jinnah. That flight doesn’t go, this plane takes it’s place. It flies along, in airspace it’s expected to be in, sending all the right responses, headed to Europe or Egypt or wherever. What’s the cargo? Something special for Israel, maybe. Something they only lacked a delivery system for.

    And if they got the plane, they got a pilot, too. It makes way more sense than the idea that he just flew off into the southern ocean and crashed.

    • ASM- Your scenario is as good as any other at this point… I would point out the sim is actually NOT that high end… It’s Microsoft FS9… That total setup can be had for about $3k. And I know lots of folks that have similar at home, including a doctor friend that uses his to ‘practice’ flying his F-16… Which he does on his duty weekends as a USAF reserve pilot. He was actually the reserve pilot of the year in 1999 for the entire USAF.