What’s next???

Welp, the fuze is apparently ‘lit’ in the middle east. Iran fired on Israel again yesterday. With about the same results.

National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan says that the Iranian missile attack on Israel was “defeated and ineffective” and that the U.S. military coordinated with the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to repel the strikes. 

Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles towards targets in Israel on Tuesday, Sullivan said at a Tuesday White House briefing, noting the move was a “significant escalation.”

The strikes were in response to the deaths of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders, Iran says. The move comes after weeks of Israeli strikes against Tehran’s proxies in the region.

Of note, the Pentagon briefing was ‘delayed’ to allow the administration to get their ‘take’ out there before the Pentagon said anything. And the Pentagon briefing was a nothing burger… sigh…

Meanwhile, the Lebanese Army had pulled back 50km from the southern border, leaving the UN ‘peacekeepers’ swinging in the wind, as the Israelis moved 45km into Lebanon to take out even more Hezbollah personnel, weapons caches, and launch sites.

The ball is now well and truly in the Israeli hands, and the question everyone is asking is WHAT will they do?

Personally, I do not think they will go nuclear, but I do believe there will be more ‘targeted’ strikes into Iran, possibly including the Iranian nuclear program, and possibly part of the Iranian administration (IRGC) that supports the Hezbollah and other surrogates.

In any case, I doubt that the US will have ANY input to what happens. Netanyahu and his cabinet will make whatever decisions THEY need to make, regardless of what the rest of the world says. I do believe they have reached that point.


Comments

What’s next??? — 20 Comments

  1. I hope Israel stays in Southern Lebanon, Gaza, and then takes control of the West Bank area. That way the terrorists controlled by Iran may be kept out of those areas. Also the Israelis need to destroy Irans nuclear facilities and missile sites by whatever means necessary. Even if it means nuclear weapons.

  2. IIRC, the Israelis notified China Joe and company, a few minutes before the bombs left the racks. Kinda like, “We’re bombing Hezbollah in three, two one…” So they could claim “we gave you prior warning.” Just too late to do anything about it.

    No I don’t think the Israelis will use nukes, this time. But if that “Brilliant foreign policy team” of Harris-(Jill) Biden keeps denying weapons to Israel (that have already been paid for), who knows. They may find they have no option but to use nukes to take out Iran’s nuclear infrastructure.

    P.S. To save my sanity and keep my blood pressure in check, I didn’t watch the VP s**t show.

  3. Agree all… with one additional point. The Israelis and Iran between them, along with the Longshoreman, have managed to show the world what some of us have suspected all along… the present administration in Washington (and on a lower level, blue states) is powerless to do anything except harass their own citizens — like any schoolyard bully.

  4. Hey Old NFO;

    THe present administration has lost whatever stroke they have with the Israeli’s with the continued pushing for restraint and holding ordinance back from the IDF, as far as the Israeli’s are concerned, the United States is a lukewarm ally at best and a borderline hostile power. I am expecting the college campuses to explode in riots again right before the elections as the pampered kids play again in what I called “Intifada Chic” and try to lock down the universities as they scream and have assorted temper tantrums but OTOH all those terrorist that are loose from our southern and northern borders, I do expect them to make a play right before the election to terrorize the Americans and force a ham fisted overreaction by the Xiden/Harris administration.

  5. I for one can’t wait to see the Israeli response. I’m certain the target list has been long drawn up. And I think the uranium enrichment sites moved to the top of that list. Don’t forget that the Saudis absolutely detest the Iranians. Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if there was a little back-door help being supplied

  6. I have heard that the Iranians told both the Israelis and the United States, about the attack before they launched it. That this was in no way a surprise.
    I’ve heard that the only real loss of life was accidental – a palestinian was walking down the street when the hulk of an intercepted rocket landed on him. Kinda funny that.

    That the Iranians told everybody, and that a lot of their missiles went after non-targets like fields (do those things have any kind of guidance system?) tells me that this entire thing was political theater. The Israelis will probably not give much of a response, and it will all just be business as usual.

    • The Israeli missile defense umbrella has three levels:

      Iron Dome targets short range rockets or missiles within a 70 km range, give or take.

      The David’s Sling system is to deal with mid range missiles up to approximately 300 km.

      The Arrow system is for ballistic missiles and can hit targes up to 2,400 km. Daniel Gold, the Israeli engineer and reserve brigadier general who ran the R&D project that developed Iron Dome is now working on a high energy laser to augment Israel’s missile protection.

      Iran fired over 180 missiles of all types. All three Israel defense systems reportedly hit ‘most’ of their targets (in a past attack it was claimed that Iron Dome hit 96% of its targets) and in a well coordinated manner. I don’t think that’s trivial. Or political theater. Iran reportedly used its new hypersonic Fattah missile and, via al-Reuters, claims that its targets were hit. If so, that may be the targeting problems you are speculating about. Or bad intelligence.

      Intercepted rockets don’t necessarily hit the target their guidance system aimed them at. Sometimes they and their debris cause terrible damage.

      In this case, three very complex systems worked as intended, AND in a well coordinated fashion, AND if missiles struck by the defense systems (or pieces of them) veered off target they did very little damage, AND any missiles that got through likewise did very little damage. . .

  7. Lebanon hasn’t had a functional nation for most of my life thanks to Syrian and Iranian meddling. One could hope that’ll change eventually.

  8. Have a speck of care for the poor Hezbollah who has to coordinate the change of command ceremonies.

  9. All- Thanks, and so far, today at least it’s been quiet. And yes, the current administration is totally clueless on SO many things…sigh

  10. If Bibi and the IDF were smart they would tell NOBODY outside Israel what they were planning. Because you can bet the farm the current administration would pass any Intel along to their enemies. I don’t see Israel ever using nuclear first. But if Iran or someone else does they most certainly would. Yesterday’s event was more likely conducted to “save face” for the mullahs in Tehran than to actually accomplish anything. I suspect the Israeli response will be tempered just like what happened in April.

  11. What I expect is that a major terrorist action here in the US before the election, or possibly before the new admin takes office, will be used by the Dems to hold on to power “until things stabilize”. Which will never happen, of course.

    • People keep on saying ‘the Democrats will X’ or ‘the Democrats will Y’.

      I’m not always clear on the processes by which they arrive at these conclusions. Which may simply be my own personal failing.

      “Then they won forever” is a sentence that describes, but does not fully persuade of how.

      “Democrats are using strategy Z” is perhaps a hypothesis that does not always explain their past decisions, considering what capabilities then they would need to successfully do Z now or in the future, and the choices they had in the past, what they actually did, and what the results were.

      I see a lot of ‘fake it until one makes it’ wishful thinking, when I look back at what the Democrats have doen, and in the impression they were trying to create while they were doing. I feel it should be possible to easily list a dozen times this year that they tried to do something, expecting it to work, and it did not, because people were not impressed.

      It looks like their actual thought process is a lot of theatrics and magic. And never considering that a) people are not always pretty identical to them b) nor higher order or otherwise unexpected effects.

      So they may think they will X, be planning to Y, or believe that they are doing Z, and be quite foreseeably mistaken when considering other perceptions, or second order effects, or whatever.

      Senior Democrats are on record suggesting that they could win a civil war with air strikes, and once implying that they are stupid enough to order air strikes on actual maintenance nodes for the platforms in questions. There is a chance that if they try something radical, they miss a basic second order effect that results in them being arrested after giving the order.

      I dunno.

      We shall see.

  12. The people making decisions in US government have been promoted many times. Strictly speaking, I think I can say that I have never been promoted. Therefore, they must have some greatness of mind, vision, and ability that I do not have. Plainly, I am not worthy of judging their fitness or intent or results.

    They are also able to consult for advice those who have risen to the top of academia. That totally means skill, judgement, and interests aligned fully with the mainstream of US population and culture.

    More seriously, I don’t know what is happening. I don’t know what happens next.

    There may even be an interesting amount of chaotic unpredictability going on.

    Oh well, much of history has been experienced without a closed form formula that completely explains what will happen next.

  13. I saw the videos of the missile strikes in Israel on various videos with my morning coffee . All I have to say is , being a person in my early 60’s , I have never seen so much weird shit all happening all at once all over the world. Speculating how things may turn out is beyond me . It is striking and uplifting to me to see national sovereignty gaining ground against planned globalist , socialist goals making a headway into EU countries , and the so called “west” .

    It has been obvious the middle east has always been a powder keg , from even the time before I was born . I think it equally obvious the “Arab Spring” foreign diplomacy model did nothing but destabilize pretty much most of the northern portion of the continent of Africa , and cause , certainly , the migrant influx into Europe and the rest of the world as well .

    Even after four deployments over there , I’m not sure what the fuck was accomplished . Now….when people say “thank you for your service” , I am polite and say , “no thanks necessary , I went where I was sent and did what I was told to do ” .

    I pray a lot , and my sentiment now is , “the world has felt our (U.S.) presence , now perhaps it is time the world felt our absence” .

    Any of our “allies” sending humanitarian aid to our current problems as a result of the most recent hurricane? Perhaps yes, I don’t know . But you can bet your ass “Uncle Sugar” is on speed dial for a lot of foreign governments .

    We are operating a government now with a commander in chief deemed too mentally impaired to stand trial ,too mentally impaired to run for office , and yet in spite of this he is meeting with foreign heads of state …if ever there was a time to invoke the 25th , it would be now….but no…everything is fine..Bullshit ..just let it ride…

    I got nothing more to add… God Bless America !!!

    P.S. just heard the 82nd was cleared to help the folks isolated and suffering , that is good news

    nothing follows…over…out !

  14. Religion: Shia, Sunni, and Jews all going at each other.
    Blood lines: Arabs, Persians, Hebrews, and assorted others.

    And I’m sure the Christians won’t be able to keep their noses out of this mess – though not sure which side they’ll back.

    Fasten your seatbelts and grab the popcorn; gonna be an interesting ride.

    Keeping in mind this show has been going on for at least 1500 years,

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