How ‘little’ attention this is getting…
Last month, economic conditions triggered the Sahm Rule — one of the most historically reliable indicators of a recession. The market responded swiftly with a major sell-off, fueling fears of an approaching downturn. However, instead of raising alarms, experts and the media immediately sought to cast doubt on whether the rule’s activation truly signaled a recession. Even Claudia Sahm, the rule’s creator, came out to downplay the possibility of a recession.
But now, the economy has triggered another notoriously accurate recession indicator.
“The inversion of the yield curve, which occurs when short-term bonds offer a higher yield than long-term bonds, is over for now after a more than two-year-long stretch,” reports Business Insider.
Full article, HERE from PJ Media and HERE from Business Insider.
When you add in what some are saying is a ‘real’ inflation rate of 19%, and the lack of media coverage of ANY negative budgetary issues, along with the constant ‘corrections’ to the monthly job numbers…
You really have to wonder whatthehell is going on! And none of it is good for us peons!
The media bread and circuses are continuing, hard news is ‘hard’ to find, the Trump assassination has disappeared from the media, etc…
And we are less than 60 days from a presidential election…
Sigh…
Well, in the comments at accordingtohoyt, BGE has chatted a time or two about various economic indicators recently. The joke is that means that now it is impossible for anything bad to happen. (I think BGE has very clear eyes, but he also discusses having very high false positive rate where negative economic behaviors are concerned.)
As for coverage, that very much makes sense. Even if we predict that the political house of cards is coming down, that faction can also be predicted to try even harder before the end.
It is not certain to be a purely boring repetition of already seen behaviors. Learn from it, plan again, try again.
We would probably still have goals of peace, and of civilization, and those are the sorts of goals that require repeated efforts, even after successes.
Economic forecasting is partly behavior, and behavior forecasting works until it doesn’t. This is a feature of the state spaces, and the historical samples fed into the theory.
It is especially likely when you have a bunch of cargo cult behaviorists gaming things maliciously. The more expensive the costs they inflict, the more they are surprised by what they have motivated.
In particular, the lockdown was a pretty huge cost. (If it was a usual cost, people would not have been excited enough, adn would have ignored to a degree. )
So forecasting now is inherently slightly questionable.
In economics, the efforts to destroy value are increasingly obviously deliberate. So it might be possible to have behavioral surprises like people suddenly weighting other stores of value.
Yeah.
“Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain.”
Feed us and keep us in the dark.
Hey Old NFO;
You know that TPTB’s are gonna run cover and interferance for the current Veep and future possible Presidential candidate, they can’t have the sheeple make correlations between the dementia in chief and his 2nd in command. You know “Orange Man bad”. after the giggler in chief is in office, then it don’t matter if the peons are pissed, it is business as usual.
Yeah, you might almost think it’s a conspiracy. Nah, couldn’t happen.
We can’t survive a 4th Obama term.
I’m not sure that we’ve survived the third term. I’m buyin’ more gold coins.
And what happens when Big Government bans private ownership of gold, again, and has the records of transactions and knows who has what and comes to your house to confiscate said gold?
Or you try to use it as barter currency and the other person is basically a rat for Big Government and…?
Put not your trust in gold and other precious metals.
In today’s over-recorded world, nothing is safe as a hedge against Big Government. Not even food. They can track your purchases and figure out who’s ‘hoarding’ and ‘storing.’ And come for it. After all, the Constitution and Bill of Rights aren’t actually followed any more.
Annihilating Big Government is the best hedge.
I think most Americans these days are too stupid to know what a recession is. One thing I learned from my trip to NY is just how brainwashed the rank and file democrats are.
All- Good points, and yes, blinded by the ‘light’ of the MSM… sigh
All that’s happening is merely “rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic”. Our economy is doomed. A collapse is inevitable. The only question is in what form it occurs. Until then the looting of the Treasury by the criminals in power will continue. And if you look deep you would see that much of the wealth they are stealing is being sent offshore.
…and Klaus WEF Schwab just announced that a series of “shocks” would rock us before the election. How would
Soros-pal know that! What a curious thing to say!…in my best Bart Simpson voice>
No prophet ever predicts the continuation of the status quo.
If he did, no-one would publish that…
Schwab is neither nice, nor good, but he’s only the “bogeyman” because politicians want someone else for you to blame.
Remember how the tale of “The Boy Who Cried Wolf” ended?
The wolf came…. and no-one took any notice.
The “wolves” of this world know this.
They are very happy with endless headlines rumours and conspiracies, because the average citizen concludes that the repeated alarms are meaningless….. so anything real gets hidden amongst the false.
I don’t know what the answer is, but any decent look at history shows that there have been periods of intense corruption, incompetence, division and violence. Some of them have been very unpleasant indeed, but humanity has survived and rebuilt. Maybe we will be one of the generations that they write about in the future.
This I know. What has been done before, can be done again.