Scares the crap out of me. Especially considering yesterday was the 40th anniversary of the Challenger disaster (O-ring failure that was known/predicted), HERE.
The target launch date for the Artemis II mission, which will take four astronauts on a trip to orbit the moon, is Feb. 6. Early next week, top brass at NASA will gather for a “go /no-go” decision on whether to launch.
It’s been a long time coming. NASA has been developing the Space Launch System (SLS), which includes two solid rocket boosters (SRBs) and the Orion capsule, for 20 years. Development costs have exceeded $29 billion (excluding the Orion capsule), and the entire Artemis campaign cost $93 billion through FY2025.
There has been exactly one SLS launch in all that time. An unmanned Artemis 1 was launched in November 2022, traveling to the Moon and back. It was mostly successful.
I say mostly because there was a slight problem with the Orion’s heat shield. In its efforts to save a little money, NASA redesigned the heat shield “to increase manufacturing and installation efficiency.”
Full article, HERE from PJ Media.
You would ‘think’ NASA would be more concerned about the heat shield, since that is a live or die proposition, rather than simply redesigning it and not testing it…
But I’m not in charge…
Oh, and let me add the whole CF surrounding the Boeing Starliner fiasco. It is, no it’s not safe, well, maybe. But they finally decided to bring it home on auto (after rewriting the software), and had to send SpaceX up to bring the astronauts home almost 8 months later, but at least they came back in one piece.
Personally, I think NASA is just throwing good money after bad with the whole SLS concept, but they have enough ‘friends’ (read congresscritters) feeding at that government tit that want the money to continue, especially in an election year.
I wonder how many of them would volunteer for that flight if it was offered???
Your thoughts?
The original SLS was a Congressional miss-design. The Utah Senator* said that he would not vote for the space shuttle unless the SLS was built in Utah. That was what required a segmented SLS to allow for rail transport to Florida.
Originally, Morton Thiokol was going to put a plant in MS or LA, and a unibody SLS built there could then be put on a barge to be taken to Kennedy.
You post about the heat shield is yet another example of how NASA has lost its’ engineering focus. Throwing good money after bad is what a bureaucracy does.
* – I’ve tried to find out the Utah Senator’s name, but all Google returns is propaganda about how “there was no Utah interference in the SLS location build selection”
I’m surprised they have actually gotten to this point, and at least as surprised that they aren’t doing another unmanned flight first.
If I were an astronaut on this mission, I’d be really worried.
Scrap NASA and privatize space flight. We’re about halfway there anyway.
One data point?
If it succeeds, it’s a big splash in the media and a win for funding.
If it fails, it’s Trumps fault.
I think NASA needs fewer bureaucrats and more geeks and nerds who wear slide rules in a holster and a dozen pens and pencils in a pocket protector. They need people who can speak conversationally about engineering disasters.
X2
I did engineering for about 30 years before switching to patent work. One of the more interesting challenges is designing for high-volume production (so saving a 1/4 of a cent saves the company 2 Bentleys per month) in products that require *high* reliability for single uses. Like those D-Day gliders. I designed airbag squib connectors for a while. These things had goddamn *better* work when called upon, but, unlike the contacts in a 10-key calculator buttons, they only need to work *once.* So, which corners do you get to cut? They *are* there.
Also about Challenger, one of the saddest things was Allen J McDonald, who, the day before the fateful launch, refused to sign off on the launch order. He passed about 5 years ago at age 83. Over his post-NASA career, he never worked in any position with higher authority or better pay. “The system” really hates whistleblowers, especially when they are right.
Forty years later, I can still see Challenger explode, and remember the grief and horror.
I truly believe the current iteration of NASA is incapable of successfully running a space program. Bureaucracy and space are not a good combination.
All for an o-ring system not designed to function under 45 degrees.
Gee, it never gets cold at the Cape or at Vandenberg (there was supposed to be a launch site at Vandy… they even built a launch complex but the tower was wired wrong…)
Curiously, the first time I saw snow in real life was Christmas day, 1973, in Satellite Beach, just 20ish miles south of the Cape. First time I ever slid down a frost-covered hill was at Vandenberg in the late 60’s.
NASA could do a trans-lunar mission using two Falcon Heavies, requiring the Orion and its dedicated service module and the trans-lunar stage to meet in orbit. For far far less than building an SLS, let alone moving, fueling and launching said SLS.
NASA is not the agency people think it is. It’s a giant jobs program with lots of slush going into politicians’ pockets.
Robert Zimmerman at Behind the Black has discussed this at length, and had an article linked in Insty a few weeks ago. Here’s his take from today:
https://behindtheblack.com/behind-the-black/essays-and-commentaries/artemis-2-proves-nasa-learned-nothing-from-the-challenger-and-columbia-failures/
I’d ride a Dragon on top of a Falcon 9 any day.
This Artemis 2 flight? No way.
You can be a lot more cavalier about “safety” when it’s not your ass on the line. No way in hell I would risk my ass for those DEI nimrods infesting NASA.
Is there any option other than “No f**king way in He**!”?
I wouldn’t fly in the Artemis. If we get them back safely, it will be pure dumb luck – and that’s no way to fly. HOPE shouldn’t have to be a calculation.
All- Thank you, and I too hope we get them back safely, but I’m not willing to ‘bet’ on it.
TPG- Yes, McDonald got the shaft and then some, but at least ‘he’ could sleep at night.
Allan McDonald wrote a book going into details: “Truth, Lies, and O-Rings”. Highly recommended for those into this kind of stuff.
I had the opportunity to speak with him at a presentation he gave at NASA 2014 or so. Very interesting fellow. I was in a black hole with direct video feed when Challenger went up. You know the astronauts were alive after the explosion … maybe even after impact.
They tried to blame some low level engineer at Thiokol until Feynman spoke to Congress.
I still damn to hell the PR flunky that said “I’ll accept the blame” and forced the launch that night just so Reagan could give a speech. I’m sure he didn’t take any blame and he certainly didn’t suffer the consequences. The launch conditions were so far out of spec but the speech must go on. Damn, damn, damn!
NASA is now a DEI PR organization that monitors contracts; only small amounts of engineering are done in house. LL hits on the head; I wouldn’t trust Artemis at all.
Planet P song: “Why Me?”
SLS should be cancelled. The program is a koke….
I don’t know the truth of this, but I heard that Morton Thiokol got the contract to “fix” the O rings.