Interesting conversation in the hotel bar last night…
Talking to an American from Austin, TX that runs a multi-national consulting firm and his Australian regional manager about what is going on in Australia as far as manufacturing…
Part of the backstory here is that Ford, Holden (Chevy), and Toyota are ceasing production of autos here. Also one refinery is closing on the East Coast and one of the tobacco companies is closing their manufacturing. Estimates are something north of 50K jobs will be lost due to these closings in both direct and indirect jobs.
They do ‘scaled’ personnel consulting, e.g. knowledge levels needed, numbers of bodies, and management of personnel policies for ramping up or down for major companies. The Aussie basically said words to the effect that Australia is ‘f**ked’, between the government taxes, lack of tax breaks, relatively ‘low’ breakpoint for luxury tax on items (like cars) and unions driving salaries to levels that are not supportable. He also said that without oil/gas production and mining, Western Australia would truly be in the toilet, that the wine (Swan Valley) and beef production couldn’t support the entire area.
They also discussed the impact of the current prime minister’s attempts to get free trade agreements with Japan, Korea and China and what that would do to jobs (probably move them offshore) in Australia. It appears at least Toyota is planning on manufacturing in Japan and just shipping vehicles into Australia, Ford will probably manufacture in the Philippines, and what Chevy will do is undetermined.
On another front, it appears there is now a push to limit the AUS submarine force, the Parliament is now saying only six submarines are needed, and they might be better off buying from Japan or Germany rather than building their own.
All in all, a pretty damn bleak forecast in the next few years, and I hope the Aussies get it solved. They’re good folks, and deserve better…